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NS4540 Political Economy of Latin America

Course Outline/Methodology

Course Materials

Why Military Officers Should Study Political Economy (NDU September 2014)

Supplemental Texts

Ricardo Bielschowsky, ECLAC Thinking: Selected Texts (1948-1998), CEPAL December 2016
CEPAL Preliminary Overview 2016 of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean
CEPAL Preliminary Overview 2017 of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribean, 2017
CEPAL, Horizons 2030: Equality at the Center of Sustainable Development, Summary May 2016
Think Tank 20, Growth Convergence and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit, Brookings Institution, November 2014
Inter-American Development Bank 2015 Macroeconomic Report, The Labyrinth: How Can Latin America and the Caribbean Navigate the Global Ecooonomy 2015
Inter-American Development Bank 2016 Macroeconomic Report, Time to Act: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Strong Challenges, 2016
Inter-American Development Bank 2017 Macroeconomic Report, Routes to Growth in a New Trade World, 2017
Javier Reyes and Charles Sawyer, Latin American Economic Development, second edition (London: Routledge, 2015). (Copy on Sakai)
Robert Looney ed., Handbook of Emerging Economies (London: Routledge, 2014). (Copy on Sakai) - chapters on Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Colombia
Robert Looney ed., Handbook of Transitions to Energy and Climate Security (London: Routledge, 2017). (Copy on Sakai) - chapter on Energy Security in Central America and the Caribbean
Leszek Balcerowicz and Andrej Rzonca eds, Puzzles of Economic Growth (Washington: World Bank, 2015) Case studies Costa Rica and Puerto Rico, Mexico and Spain, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Chile and Venezuela. (Copy on Sakai)

Reference Works

Country Data

National Statistical Offices
UNCTAD Official Sources of Country Data
Michigan State Listing of Official Country Data Sources
Michigan State Individual Country Data
World Bank Country Data

READING ASSIGNMENTS: Winter Term 2017 January 8/10

Introduction to the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean

Most Important Readings

Reyes and Sawyer, Chapter 1 Latin America in the World Economy (Sakai)
IMF, Missed Opportunities: The Economic History of Latin America -- Overview of our Test Book, October 5, 2017
Jose Antonio Ocamapo, Uncertain Times: After a decade of social and economic progress, Latin America is facing challenging issues, Finmance & Development September 2015
IMF, Latin Ameria and the Caribbean: Stuck in Low Gear October 2017 -- Current situation
Guillermo Ortiz, The Challenges to Achieving Sustainable Growth in Latin America, Brookings, 2014.

Oxford Analytica, Latin America, Falling Behind East Asia, June 22, 2012

Other Readings
IMF, Latin America: New Challenges to Growth and Stability, 2015 -- big picture -- develops many themes we will be looking at in the first part of the class
Moises Naim, The Coming Turmoil in Latin America, Carnegie, October 8, 2015
Anthony Elson, The Economic Growth of East Asia and Latin America in Comparative Perspective: Lessons for Development Policy, World Economics, April-June 2006

January 17/19/22

Historical Background

Most Important Readings

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4
Import Substitution Case Study: Chilean Automotive Industry -- Very good example of what can go wrong
Reyes and Sawyer, Chapter 6 Import Substitution (Sakai)

January 24, 29

Social, Dynamic and Political Context

Most Important Readings

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapters 5, 6
Nora Lustig, Most Unequal on Earth: Latin America is a region of stark income contrasts, but has been making progress, Finance & Developmnet, September 2015
IMF, Inclusive Growth, Institutions and the Underground Economy, February 2012
Latin America: Progress through populist policies? A mixed pecture, Rabobank, September 28, 2015

January 31, February 5

Latin American Growth Dynamics

Most Important Readings

February 7/12

Mexico and the Caribbean

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 7 -- Fiscal policy

Mexico

Francisco Gonzalez, Mexico, Chapter 15 in Handbook of Emerging Economies -- Supplemental Texts in Sakai
Francisco Gonzalez, Mexico, Europa World Plus, Sakai Europa-LA-2016 folder
Gary Hufbauer and Euijin Jang, Nafta Under the Gun, Milken Institute Review, January 22, 2018
Moises Naim, Good Mexico vs Bad Mexico, Carnegie, November 19, 2014
Robert Looney, Give Mexico a Chance, Foriegn Policy, July 16, 2012 -- in Sakai, Foreign Policy folder -- Mexico Reforms
Robert Looney, Can Mexico Cope With Trump? Foriegn Policy December 7, 2016 -- Sakai, Foreign Policy folder

RGE, Hawkish Banxico Raises Mexican Growth Risks, December 22, 2016 -- Sakai, Roubini Global Economics Folder

Other Readings

Cuba

Brookings, Ten Economic Facts About Cuba, July 17, 2015

Emily Morris, The Road Ahead for Cuba, Foreign Affairs, January 2, 2017

Ted Henken, Overcoming Cuba's Internal Embargo, Current History, February 2015
Richard Feinberg, Brookings, Cuba's Foreign Investment Invitation: Insights into Internal Struggles
Richard Fineberg and Ted Piccone, Cuba's Economic Change in Comparative Perspective, November 6, 2014

Puerto Rico

Dominican Republic/Haiti

World Bank, Why is Haiti Poorer than the Dominican Republic, Chapter 9 in World Bank, Puzzles of Economic Growth in Sakai in the Texts folder
Robert Looney, Dominican Republic, History and Economy, Europa folder on Sakai
Robert Looney, Haiti, History and Economy, Europa folder on Sakai
Robert Looney, Finally, Good News from Haiti, Foreign Policy May 3, 2013

Suriname Approaches IMF for Possible Financial Aid, Carobbean 360, January 31, 2016

Robert Looney, Is Jamaica Poised for a Turn-Around? Foreign Policy, February 12, 2014

Robert Looney "Why IMF-Driven Economic Reforms Paid Off for Jamaica This Time," World Politics Review, December 7, 2016 Update to the Jamaica Tuirn-Around paper (In Saiai in the World Politics Review tab)

Other Readings

BTI Mexico Country Report, 2014
Euler Hermes Mexico Country Report
Mexico Country Report, Rabobank, October 30, 2014
Mexico Shows resilience in a Complex Global Environment, IMF Survey, November 17, 2015 -- key challenge: fostering financial deepening while safeguarding financial stability
IMF, Mexico Title IV Consultation November 2015
Mexico energy law
IMF Mexico Selected Issues, November 2014 -- Impacts of the energy reforms.
Brookings, Mexico's Secondary Law Provices a Path Forward for New Investments in the Hydrocarbons Sector, June 25, 2014
Brookings, How Much is Informality Holding Back Mexico's Economy? June 19, 2014
Brookings, Mexico's Education Reforms and Latin America's Struggle to Raise Education Quality, January 23, 2014

February 14/21

Central America

Most Important Readings

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 11 -- Labor Markets
IMF, Corruption, Violence and Economic Growth (Honduras), November 2016, pp. 12-18
IMF, Climate Change in Nicaragua, pp. 23-42, June 2017
IMF, Migration and Remittances in Latin America, July 2017
Robert Looney, Dollarization in Latin America (El Salvador and Ecuador), Milken Institute Review, 2017
Oxford Analytica, Central America: Trump may trigger trade opportunities, January 5, 2017
Oscar Martinez et.al., "Killers on a Shoestring: Inside the Gangs of El Salvador, New York Times, November 20, 2016
Robert Looney, Migrants are the Symptom. Good Governance is the Cure, Foreign Policy March 2, 2016 -- in Sakai -- foreign policy tab Mainly about Honduras
Robert Looney, The Panama Canal Expansion is a Risky Bet that Panama Didn't Need to Make, World Politics Review October 27, 2016 -- World Politics Review folder in Sakai

Other Readings

Other Readings

February 26, 28, March 5

South America -- Atlantic (March 1, 6, 8)

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 9 -- Exchange Rates
Robert Looney, For Lessons on How Not to Handle Its Oil-Rich Future, Guyana Can Look to Africa, World Politics Review, February 1, 2017 in World Politics Review folder on Sakai

Suriname/Guyana

Venezuela

Brazil

Argentina

Miguel Kiguel, Argentina: A Case of Reverse Convergence, Think Tank 20, October 2014 Section)
Robert Looney, Argentina: Once More Into the Breach, Milken Institute Review, January 4, 2017
Can the Right Save Argentina? Legathum Institute, December 11, 2015
Albert Fishlow: Argantina
Robert Looney, Argentina's Dubious Boom, Foreign Policy, March 15, 2012
M. Victoria Murillo, Crtains for Argentina's Kirchner Era, Current History, February 2015

http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/argentina-once-more-into-the-breach
Domingo Cavalo, Argentina, Chapter 17 in Handbook of Emerging Economies
Jonathan Gilbert, Argentina's New President Moves Swiftly to Shakew up the Economy, New York times, December 27, 2015

Uruguay

Dutsche Bank, Uruguay, Frontier Market Report October 12, 2015

Other Readings

Paul Kiernan, Brazil's Economic Crisis Beats Down the Emerging Middle Class, Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2015Brazil, Middle Class WSJ

March 7

South America -- Interior

Most Important Readings

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 8 -- Interior

Europa -- Bolivia Economy (on Sakai)
http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/letter-from-bolivia
After Riding the Commodities Boom, Bolivia Faces Stress of Falling Prices, World Politics Review, October 15, 2015
Robert Looney, Populism in Bolivia, Foreign Policy February 26, 2013
Nieves Zuniga and Paul Heywood, Cleaning up La Paz: How Bolivia's biggest city freed itself from a ubiquiteous culture of corruption, Foreign Policy September 2015
Europa -- Paraguary Economy (on Sakai)
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/dark-pasts-and-bright-futures-paraguay
IMF, Informality in Paraguay: Macro-Micro Evidence and Policy Implications, November 24, 2015
IMF, 2014 Article IV Assessment of the Paraguayan Economy, February 2015

March 12/14

South America -- Pacific

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 10 -- Trade and Financial Liberalization

Oxford Analytica, Latin America: New Bloc Aims for Open Regionalism, May 23, 2013

Chile

Peru

Moises Arce, The Persistence of the Two Perus, Current History, February 2014

Ecuador

Ecuador Country Report, Rabobank, December 31,2014
IMF, Ecuador, Selected Issues, The Dollar and Financial Stability, October 2015
Carolyn Cui and Manuela Badaway, Cheap Oil and Strong Dollar: Ecuador's Twin Problems, Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2015

Colombia

James Robinson, Colombia: Another 100 Years of Solitude? Current History, February 2013
Brookings, The Challenges Santos Faces, July 3, 2014
Colombia: The Promise of Peace, Economist Special Report, October 31, 2015
Eduardo Gomez, Smart Development: How Colombia, Mexico and Singapore Beat the BRICs, Foreign Affairs February 5, 2014
Nake Kamrany, Laura Amey, et. al. Colombia, Chapter 24 in Handbook of Emerging Economies

March 19

Summing Up: Latin Amerian Growth and Development

Armendariz and Larrain, Chapter 12 -- Growth and Development in Latin America

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